HBAT (Hair, Block, Anderson and Tatham Company) sells paper products to two market segments: the newsprint industry and the magazine industry. Further, these paper products are sold to these market segments, either directly to the customer or indirectly through a broker. HBAT wanted to develop a better understanding of both the characteristics of its customers and the relationships between their perceptions of HBAT, and their actions towards HBAT (e.g., satisfaction and likelihood to recommend). From this understanding of its customers, HBAT will be in a good position to develop its Forecasting plan for the next year.
To develop this level of understanding of its situation, a survey of existing customers of HBAT was conducted through an established marketing research firm. Three types of information were collected in a survey of 200 purchasing managers from firms buying from HBAT. A first type of data reflects the characteristics of the respondent and includes information such as the size of the customer and length of the purchase relationship. The second type of information was perceptions of HBAT’s performance on 13 attributes. These attributes (developed through focus groups, a pre-test, and used in previous studies) are considered to be the most influential in the selection of suppliers in the paper industry. The third type of information relates to purchase outcomes and business relationships (e.g., satisfaction with HBAT and whether the firm would consider a strategic alliance / partnership with HBAT).
The data are available in the HBAT DATA.xls file on Blackboard and a definition of each variable and an explanation of its coding are given in Appendix 1. Please assume the sample of 200 respondents is representative of HBAT’s customers.
In addition, management at HBAT have provided you with sales data from 2010 to 2018 on a monthly basis. Please see Table 1;
Table 1. HBAT sales (in £000s)
Month
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
January
139.7
165.1
177.8
228.6
266.7
431.8
381
431.8
495.3
February
114.3
177.8
203.2
254
317.5
457.2
406.4
444.5
533.4
March
101.6
177.8
228.6
266.7
368.3
457.2
431.8
495.3
635
April
152.4
203.2
279.4
342.9
431.8
482.6
457.2
533.4
673.1
May
215.9
241.3
317.5
355.6
457.2
533.4
495.3
558.8
749.3
June
228.6
279.4
330.2
406.4
571.5
622.3
584.2
647.7
812.8
July
215.9
292.1
368.3
444.5
546.1
660.4
609.6
673.1
800.1
August
190.5
317.5
355.6
431.8
482.6
520.7
558.8
660.4
736.6
September
177.8
203.2
241.3
330.2
431.8
508
508
609.6
685.8
October
139.7
177.8
215.9
330.2
406.4
482.6
495.3
584.2
635
November
139.7
165.1
215.9
304.8
393.7
457.2
444.5
520.7
622.3
December
152.4
177.8
203.2
292.1
406.4
431.8
419.1
482.6
622.3
The Tasks
Please write a report, of no more than 3,000 words, to the management of HBAT addressing the following issues:
Part (a) -Forecasting comparison practice
· Describe the historical data on HBAT sales, including a discussion of the general direction of sales and any seasonal tendencies that might be occurring.
· Choose, giving your justification, which time series forecasting techniques are appropriate for producing forecasts with this data set. Compare the models based on ex post forecasts. Use your chosen forecasting model to generate forecasts for each of the months in year 2019.
· Discuss how these forecasts might be integrated into the planning operations and policy required by management at HBAT.
Part (b) -Regression Analysis
· Develop model/s to predict satisfaction from the perceptions of the performance variables. What are the most influentialperformance variables?
· Make a recommendation to HBAT that enhances their understanding of their customers so that the management can develop its marketing plan that will feed into their Forecasting Plan for the next year.
The Report and supporting appendices, if any, should be combined into one document, which must be submitted
by 13:00 on 28th April 2021 via Blackboard only. It will automatically be scanned through a text matching system (designed to check for possible plagiarism). YOU MUST include the title of the report and word count on the first page of your assignment.
1Adapted from Hair, Joseph F. Jr., William C. Black, Barry J. Babin, and Rolph E. Anderson, Multivariate Data Analysis,
International Edition, 7th Edition, Pearson Higher Education.
APPENDIX 1
Questionnaire Details
Customer Characteristics
The five characteristics of the responding firms reflect the basic characteristics and their business relationship with HBAT. The five variables are as follows:
Variable
Name
Definition
Coding
X1
Customer Duration
Length of time a particular customer has been buying from HBAT
1 = Less than 1 year;
2 = Between 1 and 5 years;
3 = Longer than 5 years
X2
Customer Type
Type of industry that purchases HBAT’s paper products
0 = Magazine;
1 = Newsprint
X3
Customer Size
Based on number of employees
0 = Small firm, < 500 employees;
1 = Large firm, ≥ 500 employees
X4
Customer Region
Customer location
0 = EU;
1 = Outside EU
X5
Distribution System
Sales and services are provided through this distribution system
0 = Indirectly through a broker; 1 = Directly through salesforce
Perceptions of HBAT’s Performance
Each of these variables was measured on a graphic rating scale, where a ten-centimetre line was drawn between the endpoints, labelled “Poor” and “Excellent”. Respondents indicated their perceptions by placing a mark anywhere on the line. The mark was then measured and the distance from zero (in centimetres) was recorded. The result was a scale ranging from zero to ten, rounded to a single decimal place. The thirteen attributes rated by each respondent are as follows:
Variable
Name
Definition
X6
Product Quality
Perceived level of quality of HBAT’s paper products
X7
E-Commerce Activities/Website
Overall image of HBAT’s website, especially its user-friendliness
X8
Technical Support
Extent to which technical support is offered to help solve product/service issues
X9
Complaint Resolution
Extent to which any complaints are resolved in a timely and complete manner
X10
Advertising
Perceptions of HBAT’s advertising campaign in all types of media
X11
Product Line
Depth and breadth of HBAT’s product line to meet customer needs
X12
Salesforce Image
Overall image of HBAT’s salesforce
X13
Competitive Pricing
Extent to which HBAT offers competitive prices
X14
Warranty & Claims
Extent to which HBAT stands behind its product/service warranties and claims
X15
New Products
Extent to which HBAT develops and sells new products
X16
Ordering & Billing
Perception that ordering and billing is handled efficiently and correctly
X17
Price Flexibility
Perceived willingness of HBAT sales representatives to negotiate price on purchases of paper products
X18
Delivery Speed
Amount of time it takes to deliver the paper products once an order has been confirmed
Purchase Outcomes & Relationship
The first four variables below are measured on a graphic rating scale, where a ten-centimetre line was drawn between the endpoints, labelled as indicated in the coding column. Respondents indicated their perceptions by placing a mark anywhere on the line. The mark was then measured and the distance from zero (in centimetres) was recorded. The result was a scale ranging from zero to ten, rounded to a single decimal place. Five specific measures were obtained that reflected the outcomes of the respondent’s purchase relationships with HBAT. These measures include:
Variable
Name
Definition
Coding
X19
Satisfaction
Customer satisfaction with past purchases from HBAT
0 – 10 graphic scale, where ‘0’ indicates “Not at All” and ‘10’ indicates “Completely Satisfied”
X20
Likely to Recommend
Likelihood of recommending HBAT to other firms as a supplier of paper products
0 – 10 graphic scale, where ‘0’ indicates “Not at All Likely” and ‘10’ indicates “Definitely”
X21
Likely to Purchase
Likelihood of purchasing paper products from HBAT in the future
0 – 10 graphic scale, where ‘0’ indicates “Not at All Likely” and ‘10’ indicates “Definitely”
X22
Purchase Level
Percentage of the responding firm’s paper needs purchased from HBAT
Measured on a 100-point percentage scale
X23
Consider Strategic Alliance
Extent to which the customer/respondent perceives his or her firm would engage in strategic alliance/partnership with HBAT
0 = No, would not consider; 1 = Yes, would consider
0
Secenea
