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Decision Tree Analysis

Data- Driven Decision Making

Rolanda Martin

Western Governors University

Mr. Tony Pineda

C207 Data – Driven Decision Making

May 15, 2024

Decision Tree Analysis

Market Research Report

Today’s pharmaceutical world is changing. As Chief Operating Officer of Major Pharmaceutical Company (MPC), I deliver a complete market research report to help formulate MPC’s drug line development strategy. Our focus revolves around two key alternatives: developing a new drug (exhibition) or modifying an existing drug (exploitation of new applications). Market conditions are decisive, and our analysis examines both favorable and unfavorable cases. In a real ideal market, our new drug line has a 69% probability of success with a sale of 4133 units per month, and the old drugs have already achieved a probability of 69% (DiMasi, 2020). If the status quo is maintained, there is a 77% probability of success with an order for 657 units.

Meanwhile, in an undesirable market, the demand for a new drug line is 1355 units, the existing drug line is at 1911 units, and simply maintaining the current strategy means a demand of 258. The new drug is $0.65 per unit, the existing drug has new uses but the same price, $0.77, and the current drug is at its present price of $0.87 per unit. In this report, decision tree analysis is used to suggest a set of actions with values (probabilities and payoffs) estimated under different conditions. Limitations identified include uncertainties regarding data and potential shortcomings of the decision tree analysis method. These recommendations will give MPC a clear direction of how to go based on our business and market conditions.

Business Question and Applied Decision Tree Analysis

The central business question derived from the scenario is: Is there a single decision alternative offering the highest expected financial outcome today, given current market research? Should it be new drug development, expanding the established drug line or continuing with existing levels of production and sales? A decision tree analysis was used to answer that question. For each alternative, the probabilities, payoffs and profits under favorable and unfavorable market conditions were systematically worked out. These Expected Monetary Values (EMVs) calculated for each decision alternative form a strategic basis for recommending the most financially feasible course of action (Gupta et al., 2017).

Relevant Data Values Required for Decision Tree Analysis

Relevant data provided in the scenario included every alternative, the probability of a favorable or unfavorable market. For every alternative, there was the expected demand in a favorable and unfavorable market, as well as the profit per unit. Having this information, it is now easy to calculate the EMV.

Favorable Market

Alternative

Probability

Demand

Profits

Payoff

Develop a new drug line

69

4133

0.65

2686.45

Expand existing drug line

61

5577

0.77

4294.29

Continue existing line

77

657

0.87

597.69

Unfavorable Market

Develop a new drug line

31

1355

0.65

880.75

Expand existing drug line

39

1911

0.77

1471.47

Continue existing line

23

258

0.87

224.46

Decision Tree

The decision tree analysis tool is used to compare several options and different decisions, with the aim of making a judgment on what course to take based on the results of comparing all possible alternatives. For this case, MPC should consider three alternative options and take the best one. It should consider either developing a new drug line, expanding the existing drug line or continuing with the existing line. Using this kind of analysis tool, it is possible to compare all these options and their respective outcomes. Based on this comparison, we have a chance to choose the option that has the highest positive answer.

Implications of Decision Tree Analysis

Develop a New Drug Line

Probabilities and Demand – Under a probability of 69% favorable market conditions, demand for the new drug line is estimated to be 4133 units per month. On the other side, a 31% vesting probability for an unfavorable market condition lowers demand to 1355 units.

Expected Value Determination – The decision tree analysis yields an expected monetary value (EMV) of $2124.33 for developing a new drug line. Thus, given the uncertainties of market conditions, this choice works out to a positive expected financial bottom line.

Expand Existing Drug Line

Probabilities and Demand – According to the expectation of a favorable market (61% probability), demand for the existing drug line expansion in one month is estimated at 5577 units. If the market turns unfavorable (about a 39% chance), demand drops to 191 units.

Expected Value Determination – If expanding the existing drug line is an option, then EMV is $3194.04. Based on decision tree analysis, compared with other options, this alternative has a higher expected financial outcome.

Continue Existing Line

Probabilities and Demand – When there is a favorable market, the probability of success associated with continuing the drug line is 77%. In such cases, demand will reach 657 units. For an unfavorable market (23% probability), demand drops to 258 units.

Expected Value Determination – The EMV for continuing the current drug line is $512.56. This option has a lower expected financial outcome than the other choices, but it is stable and low-risk.

Limitations

Though it is effective, decision tree analysis has its limitations. One problem is that the accuracy of data elements depends on individual interpretation. Where probabilities, payoffs, or profits are based on unreliable or outdated information, the analysis could produce misleading results. Moreover, decision tree analysis relies on the assumption that events are independent of one another. However, in real-life business problems, this is only sometimes the case. There are also political, social, short-term, and long-term consequences of making business decisions. The decision tree analysis only looks at one-dimensional profit potential (Pauker & Kassirer, 2019; Rennane et al., 2021).

Recommendations

The decision to expand the existing drug line is recommended since it gives the largest EMV of $3194.04. This decision reflects Major Pharmaceutical Company’s desire to strive for maximum profit while attaining a balanced risk-return ratio (Charbuty & Abdulazeez, 2021). The expansion strategy seeks to take advantage of market opportunities and ride on proven success. There is also an option for developing a new drug line that has the second-highest EMV but has a lower profitability. The recommendation intends to direct MPC institutionally toward optimal decision-making in a rapidly changing pharmaceutical market.

References

Charbuty, B., & Abdulazeez, A. (2021). Classification based on decision tree algorithm for machine learning. 
Journal of Applied Science and Technology Trends, 
2(01), 20-28.

DiMasi, J. A. (2020). Research and development costs of new drugs. 
JAMA, 
324(5), 517-517.

Gupta, B., Rawat, A., Jain, A., Arora, A., & Dhami, N. (2017). Analysis of various decision tree algorithms for classification in data mining. 
International Journal of Computer Applications, 
163(8), 15-19.

Pauker, S. G., & Kassirer, J. P. (2019). Decision analysis. 
Medical uses of statistics, 159-179.

Rennane, S., Baker, L., & Mulcahy, A. (2021). Estimating the cost of industry investment in drug research and development: a review of methods and results. 
INQUIRY: The Journal of Health Care Organization, Provision, and Financing, 
58, 00469580211059731.

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July 1, 2023
    

There are 24 T/F and Multiple Choice Questions of Corporate Finance.
Which could not find online, so I need professional to finish them
Such as:
1. Sensitivity and scenario analysis aid the capital budgeting decision process by changing the underlying assumptions on which the decision is based.
2. In the accounting break-even the EAC is used to allocate the initial investment at its opportunity cost over the life of the project.
Read the questions (TF and Multiple Choice Questions.docx) first, before you bid.
Make sure you have confidence to do it well.
After I submit the answers, I will get the grade;
if the grade is lower than 70%, I will ask for refund.

Question 1
Sensitivity and scenario analysis aid the capital budgeting decision process by changing the underlying assumptions on which the decision is based.
True
False

1 points  
Question 2
In the accounting break-even the EAC is used to allocate the initial investment at its opportunity cost over the life of the project.
True
False

1 points  
Question 3
The slope of the capital market line is the equilibrium price of risk in terms of expected return, (E(RM) - RF) / σM .
True
False

1 points  
Question 4
The two-fund separation in the CAPM equilibrium means that every investor holds a combination of the well-diversified market portfolio and the risk-free asset.
True
False

1 points  
Question 5
The SML is a graphical presentation of the relationship between a security's expected return and its beta.
True
False

1 points  
Question 6
If other things remain the same, the higher the standard deviation, the lower the beta of a security.
True
False

1 points  
Question 7
The beta of a security is estimated as the slope of the regression equation, where the dependent variable (vertical axis) is the (excess) return on the security and the independent variable (horizontal axis) is the (excess) return on the market portfolio.
True
False

1 points  
Question 8
If a security is above the SML, a mean-variance investor would sell the security because it is overvalued.
True
False

1 points  
Question 9
The cost of debt of a firm is equal to one plus the marginal corporate tax rate (1 + TC) multiplied by the yield to maturity of its outstanding debt.
True
False

1 points  
Question 10
The adjusted beta is always lower than the unadjusted beta.
True
False

1 points  
Question 11
One method of estimating the growth rate of a company is to use the retention growth model, where the growth rate (=g) is estimated as the ROE multiplied by the plowback ratio.
True
False

1 points  
Question 12
The financial leverage is the extent to which fixed-income securities are used in a firm's capital structure.
True
False

1 points  
Question 13
As the debt ratio of a firm increases, its equity beta increases because of the added financial risk.
True
False

1 points  
Question 14
MM's proposition I under no taxes implies that the cost of equity of a firm remains the same as the firm uses more debt because of the no-tax assumption.
True
False

1 points  
Question 15
MM's proposition I under no taxes implies that an issue of debt increases both the expected earnings per share (EPS) and the risk of the EPS. As a result, the stock price remains the same.
True
False

1 points  
Question 16
_____ evaluates the NPV of a project with respect to changes in one variable while holding others constant.
 
        Sensitivity analysis      
        Scenario analysis      
        Simulation      
        Mean Variance model      

             
1 points  
Question 17
The present value (PV) break-even point is better than the accounting break-even point because
 
        PV break-even point is the same as the sensitivity analysis.      
        PV break-even point covers the economic opportunity costs of the investment.      
        PV break-even point covers the fixed costs of production, which the accounting break-point does not.      
        PV break-even point covers the variable costs of production, which the accounting break-even point does not.

     
1 points  
Question 18
An investor who wishes to form a portfolio that lies to the right of the optimal risky portfolio on the Capital Market Line has to
 
        lend some of her money at the risk-free rate and invest the rest in the optimal risky portfolio.      
        borrow some money at the risk-free rate and invest it in the optimal risky portfolio      
        invest only in the risky securities.      
        hold a portfolio which is not diversified.

     
1 points  
Question 19
If other things remain the same, diversification is more effective when
 
        securities returns are positively correlated.      
        securities returns are uncorrelated.      
        securities returns are negatively correlated.      
        securities returns are high.      

             
1 points  
Question 20
A measure of how much the returns of two risky assets move together is
 
        variance      
        standard deviation      
        covariance      
        semi-variance      

             
1 points  
Question 21
The optimal risky portfolio can be identified by finding ______ .
 
        the minimum variance point on the efficient frontier      
        the maximum return point on the efficient frontier      
        the tangency point of the capital market line and the efficient frontier      
        none of the above answers is correct.

     
1 points  
Question 22
Which one of the following is not a determinant of beta of the equity of a company?
 
        cyclicality of revenues      
        operating leverage      
        financial leverage      
        All of the above are determinants of beta.      

             
1 points  
Question 23
When the SML is written in the following form, the second tem (underlined) in the equation represents ______________:
RS,L = RF + βS,U (RM - RF) + βS,U (B/S) (RM - RF)
 
        total risk premium      
        business risk premium      
        financial risk premium      
        non-systematic risk premium      

             
1 points  
Question 24
When we consider the corporate taxes, the value of a levered firm can be shown as the next equation: VL = VU + tc B.
The last tem (=tc B) in the equation above represents _______.
 
        present value of taxes      
        present value of tax shields      
        present value of financial risk premium      
        present value of bankruptcy costs     

default image
July 1, 2023
    

There are 24 T/F and Multiple Choice Questions of Corporate Finance.
Which could not find online, so I need professional to finish them
Such as:
1. Sensitivity and scenario analysis aid the capital budgeting decision process by changing the underlying assumptions on which the decision is based.
2. In the accounting break-even the EAC is used to allocate the initial investment at its opportunity cost over the life of the project.
Read the questions (TF and Multiple Choice Questions.docx) first, before you bid.
Make sure you have confidence to do it well.
After I submit the answers, I will get the grade;
if the grade is lower than 70%, I will ask for refund.

Question 1
Sensitivity and scenario analysis aid the capital budgeting decision process by changing the underlying assumptions on which the decision is based.
True
False

1 points  
Question 2
In the accounting break-even the EAC is used to allocate the initial investment at its opportunity cost over the life of the project.
True
False

1 points  
Question 3
The slope of the capital market line is the equilibrium price of risk in terms of expected return, (E(RM) - RF) / σM .
True
False

1 points  
Question 4
The two-fund separation in the CAPM equilibrium means that every investor holds a combination of the well-diversified market portfolio and the risk-free asset.
True
False

1 points  
Question 5
The SML is a graphical presentation of the relationship between a security's expected return and its beta.
True
False

1 points  
Question 6
If other things remain the same, the higher the standard deviation, the lower the beta of a security.
True
False

1 points  
Question 7
The beta of a security is estimated as the slope of the regression equation, where the dependent variable (vertical axis) is the (excess) return on the security and the independent variable (horizontal axis) is the (excess) return on the market portfolio.
True
False

1 points  
Question 8
If a security is above the SML, a mean-variance investor would sell the security because it is overvalued.
True
False

1 points  
Question 9
The cost of debt of a firm is equal to one plus the marginal corporate tax rate (1 + TC) multiplied by the yield to maturity of its outstanding debt.
True
False

1 points  
Question 10
The adjusted beta is always lower than the unadjusted beta.
True
False

1 points  
Question 11
One method of estimating the growth rate of a company is to use the retention growth model, where the growth rate (=g) is estimated as the ROE multiplied by the plowback ratio.
True
False

1 points  
Question 12
The financial leverage is the extent to which fixed-income securities are used in a firm's capital structure.
True
False

1 points  
Question 13
As the debt ratio of a firm increases, its equity beta increases because of the added financial risk.
True
False

1 points  
Question 14
MM's proposition I under no taxes implies that the cost of equity of a firm remains the same as the firm uses more debt because of the no-tax assumption.
True
False

1 points  
Question 15
MM's proposition I under no taxes implies that an issue of debt increases both the expected earnings per share (EPS) and the risk of the EPS. As a result, the stock price remains the same.
True
False

1 points  
Question 16
_____ evaluates the NPV of a project with respect to changes in one variable while holding others constant.
 
        Sensitivity analysis      
        Scenario analysis      
        Simulation      
        Mean Variance model      

             
1 points  
Question 17
The present value (PV) break-even point is better than the accounting break-even point because
 
        PV break-even point is the same as the sensitivity analysis.      
        PV break-even point covers the economic opportunity costs of the investment.      
        PV break-even point covers the fixed costs of production, which the accounting break-point does not.      
        PV break-even point covers the variable costs of production, which the accounting break-even point does not.

     
1 points  
Question 18
An investor who wishes to form a portfolio that lies to the right of the optimal risky portfolio on the Capital Market Line has to
 
        lend some of her money at the risk-free rate and invest the rest in the optimal risky portfolio.      
        borrow some money at the risk-free rate and invest it in the optimal risky portfolio      
        invest only in the risky securities.      
        hold a portfolio which is not diversified.

     
1 points  
Question 19
If other things remain the same, diversification is more effective when
 
        securities returns are positively correlated.      
        securities returns are uncorrelated.      
        securities returns are negatively correlated.      
        securities returns are high.      

             
1 points  
Question 20
A measure of how much the returns of two risky assets move together is
 
        variance      
        standard deviation      
        covariance      
        semi-variance      

             
1 points  
Question 21
The optimal risky portfolio can be identified by finding ______ .
 
        the minimum variance point on the efficient frontier      
        the maximum return point on the efficient frontier      
        the tangency point of the capital market line and the efficient frontier      
        none of the above answers is correct.

     
1 points  
Question 22
Which one of the following is not a determinant of beta of the equity of a company?
 
        cyclicality of revenues      
        operating leverage      
        financial leverage      
        All of the above are determinants of beta.      

             
1 points  
Question 23
When the SML is written in the following form, the second tem (underlined) in the equation represents ______________:
RS,L = RF + βS,U (RM - RF) + βS,U (B/S) (RM - RF)
 
        total risk premium      
        business risk premium      
        financial risk premium      
        non-systematic risk premium      

             
1 points  
Question 24
When we consider the corporate taxes, the value of a levered firm can be shown as the next equation: VL = VU + tc B.
The last tem (=tc B) in the equation above represents _______.
 
        present value of taxes      
        present value of tax shields      
        present value of financial risk premium      
        present value of bankruptcy costs     

default image
July 1, 2023
    

This assignment will be one of several throughout the Ph.D. program that we use to help you prepare for the dissertation process. One of the core competencies necessary to succeed in a doctoral program is the ability to identify other research that pertains to your own. This means you'll have to identify related research, read the papers, and assimilate prior work into your research. An annotated bibliography helps you develop and hone these research skills.

Your paper will be an annotated bibliography, explicitly focusing on the "Depth" topic (i.e. Defense in Depth) in the context of protecting National Infrastructure.

Your paper must be in correct APA format, use correct grammar, and will need to include at least five (5) resources, ALL of which must:

1) Be current. Published within the last few years.

2) Be peer-reviewed.

3) Relate directly to defense in depth in the context of protecting National Infrastructure.

Remember that an annotation is not the same as an abstract. Abstracts are descriptive. Your annotations are to be evaluative and critical. Give me enough information for me to decide if I'm interested enough to read the paper, and also how you perceive the paper. Do not go skimpy on these annotations, but DO NOT write too much here. Quality is far more critical than quantity. This exercise is for each of you to demonstrate that you can identify, categorize, and digest multiple research papers. 

Every resource you choose must be peer-reviewed. That means the paper must have undergone a formal peer review before being published in a journal or presented at a conference. You must ensure that your resources have undergone rigorous reviews. In most cases, you can find out the review process for a conference or journal by visiting the appropriate web site. Do not merely assume that a resource is peer-reviewed - check it out. 

Here are a few URLs with additional information: (I strongly suggest that you look at these. Really.)

https://sites.umuc.edu/library/libhow/bibliography_apa.cfm

https://www.bethel.edu/library/research/apa-annobib-sixth.pdf

http://libguides.enc.edu/writing_basics/annotatedbib/apa    <<<< Check out the "Rules! Rules! rules!" section

http://guides.library.cornell.edu/annotatedbibliography

https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/614/03/

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Your service is excellent! Convenient and not expensive. Thanks for that!

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customer #10923
Psychology, 4 pages
Essay (any type)
August 5, 2021
    

If you have problems with time management, just like me, you need to cooperate with Doctor My Essay. Once you registered and made the order, you understand how easier it makes your life! Everything is online: ordering, communication… You can control the process everywhere and be sure that an expert will provide a high-level paper.

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customer #17823
Business, 8 pages

Calculate the price of your order

550 words
We'll send you the first draft for approval by September 11, 2018 at 10:52 AM
Total price:
$26
The price is based on these factors:
Academic level
Number of pages
Urgency
Basic features
  • Free title page and bibliography
  • Unlimited revisions
  • Plagiarism-free guarantee
  • Money-back guarantee
  • 24/7 support
On-demand options
  • Writer’s samples
  • Part-by-part delivery
  • Overnight delivery
  • Copies of used sources
  • Expert Proofreading
Paper format
  • 275 words per page
  • 12 pt Arial/Times New Roman
  • Double line spacing
  • Any citation style (APA, MLA, Chicago/Turabian, Harvard)

Our guarantees

Delivering a high-quality product at a reasonable price is not enough anymore.
That’s why we have developed 5 beneficial guarantees that will make your experience with our service enjoyable, easy, and safe.

Money-back guarantee

You have to be 100% sure of the quality of your product to give a money-back guarantee. This describes us perfectly. Make sure that this guarantee is totally transparent.

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Zero-plagiarism guarantee

Each paper is composed from scratch, according to your instructions. It is then checked by our plagiarism-detection software. There is no gap where plagiarism could squeeze in.

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Free-revision policy

Thanks to our free revisions, there is no way for you to be unsatisfied. We will work on your paper until you are completely happy with the result.

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Privacy policy

Your email is safe, as we store it according to international data protection rules. Your bank details are secure, as we use only reliable payment systems.

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Fair-cooperation guarantee

By sending us your money, you buy the service we provide. Check out our terms and conditions if you prefer business talks to be laid out in official language.

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