Alternative Futures Analysis

Overview

In a globalized world, counterterrorism efforts and research within the criminal justice field continue to expand, and their need is repeatedly underscored by each new attack. Those who seek to mitigate terrorist threats understand that terror does not occur in a vacuum. They explore how historical events, geopolitics, and previous terrorist attacks can influence the nature of terrorism in the world today. Counterterrorism professionals must have the ability to think critically and analytically about current and emerging threats and issues in order to consider all possible outcomes. One way this is achieved is by conducting an alternative futures analysis (AFA). Typically an AFA is conducted by counterterrorism analysts prior to the occurrence of a terrorist event so that alternative trajectories of a known threat can be identified. Rather than predicting one outcome, an AFA attempts to use the complexity and uncertainty of a situation to describe multiple possible outcomes (futures) that intelligence professionals and policymakers should consider.

For your final project, you will conduct a modified version of an alternative futures analysis. You will select a modern terrorist attack as a foundation for exploring alternative futures and critically analyzing the government’s response to the event. In your analysis, you will determine the historical events that set the stage for the attack, including the events that led to the formation of the terrorist organization involved. You will then consider the local and global impacts of the government’s response to the attack, along with the response’s intended goals and unintended consequences. You will describe a possible alternative response to the attack and explain how that alternative response might have made the terrorist organization more or less of a threat to the world today. Finally, you will evaluate the present counterterrorism approach of the country in which the attack occurred and explain how an alternative approach could potentially impact future terrorist actions.

In this assignment, you will demonstrate your mastery of the following course outcomes:

· Determine key historical factors that influenced the evolution of modern global terrorism.

· Analyze a terrorist event for determining the extent of its impact on the field of global terrorism.

· Analyze responses to terrorism for determining their expected outcomes and unintended consequences on local and global communities.

· Evaluate past and present counterterrorism approaches for informing future responses to terrorism.

Prompt

Imagine that you are a counterterrorism analyst working for an intelligence agency in the country in which your selected terrorist attack occurred. Your director has tasked you with conducting an alternative futures analysis on the attack. The purpose of your analysis is to present how the terrorist organization involved in the attack might have become more or less of a threat to the world today if the country’s government had responded to the attack differently. You will also evaluate the country’s current approach to terrorism and explain how a different approach could potentially impact future terrorist actions.

Specifically, the following critical elements must be addressed:

I.
Introduction: Describe the 
details of the terrorist attack you selected. Be sure to include when, where, and how the attack took place, and the terrorist group responsible.

II.
Background on the Attack: In this section, you will discuss events that contributed to the attack’s occurrence, including the formation of the terrorist organization involved. Limit your focus to historical events that occurred from the Cold War to the present.

A. Explain how the 
history of the geographic region where the terrorist organization originated contributed to the attack. In other words, how did the region’s history create a volatile atmosphere or lead to tensions that contributed to the situation?

B. Describe the sequence of relevant 
historical events that set the stage for the terrorist attack. Events to consider might include government policies or decisions, political elections, military actions, and other terrorist attacks.

C. Describe the evolution of the 
terrorist organization involved in the attack. Be sure to consider the global historical attacks, policies, or decisions that led to its creation.

III.
Analysis of the Attack: In this section, you will analyze the terrorist attack and determine how it impacted the field of global terrorism.

A. Explain why the event is considered a 
terrorist attack instead of an act of violence.

B. Explain the 
ideology and underlying 
motivation of the terrorist organization responsible for the attack.

C.
Draw connections between the organization’s ideology and the global nature of the attack. Consider the following:

1. What was the attack intended to draw attention to?

2. How did the organization use the attack to further their global cause?

D. Explain the 
local and global impact of the attack in regard to who became involved in the response. Be sure to address the following:

1. Which local criminal justice, government, or private sector agencies were involved in responding to the attack?

2. Did other nations get involved, and to what extent?

E. Describe the impact of the attack on the 
terrorist organization itself. Consider the following:

1. Did it help or hinder the organization’s cause?

2. Did it lose or the gain the support of followers?

IV.
Past Response and Alternatives: In this section, you will focus on how the government of the country in which the attack occurred responded to the event. You will also consider the impacts of the government’s response and suggest an alternative response.

A. Discuss 
decisions that were made 
and policies that were created in response to the attack to discourage terrorism and explain the intended purpose of those decisions. You may consider both foreign and domestic policies.

B. Explain the 
unintended consequences of those decisions and policies. Consider the following:

1. Did the response negatively impact relationships with other countries?

2. Did the response unintentionally encourage terrorism?

C. Describe how 
other countries were impacted by the response, using supporting examples.

D. Discuss the 
lessons learned from the government’s response. In hindsight, what did the government do wrong? What did it do right?

E. Suggest a specific way in which the government could have 
responded differently to the terrorist attack.

F. Explain how this 
alternative response could have changed the current state of the terrorist organization responsible for the attack. In other words, if that alternative response had been used, how might the terrorist organization have been more or less of a threat to the world today?

V.
Current Approaches and Alternatives: In this section, you will consider the current counterterrorism approaches of the country in which the attack occurred and discuss possible alternatives.

A. Explain how the country’s overall 
counterterrorism approach has changed or evolved since the attack.

B.
Summarize arguments that exist for and against the country’s current counterterrorism approach.

C. Using your research, determine if the country’s current counterterrorism approach is an 
effective one. Defend your conclusion.

D. Describe a possible 
alternative to the country’s current counterterrorism 
approach.

E. Explain the potential long-term impact of the alternative approach on preventing 
future terrorist actions.

Your research proposal should be 12–15 pages (not including your title and reference page) in Microsoft Word, with 12-pt. Times New Roman font, double spacing, and sources cited in APA format.